Last night, David Harsanyi noted that, for the third election in a row, pollsters have whiffed on predicting the results in Florida. There are some state results left to be determined, but another state for which we can similarly claim significant collective polling error is Ohio.
Polling throughout this race showed a dead heat, and most polls were likelier to show a Biden lead than a Trump one (with Trafalgar a notable exception). Trump ended up favored by one in the final RCP average. It is looking like Trump will end up with basically his 2016 margin: an eight-point victory. That is quite the miss!
The last three polls in the 2018 gubernatorial race between Republican Mike DeWine and Democrat Richard Cordray had Cordray up by at least three points. DeWine won by more than four. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump was faring a little better in pre-election polls, ending up ahead in the final pre-election average by 3.5 points. Yet he won the state by eight points, more than twice that.
Early in this century, and for much of the last, Ohio was a much sought-after swing state. Now, as other states become swingier, Ohio’s political habits at the moment look a bit more settled — in one direction.
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